Holy krap! Just look at Obama go! H&R Block has nothing on this man. This dude has “people!!” Super Tuesday was indeed a bit crazy!
Now, time for a reality check.
Obama won 13 states (14 IF New Mexico does come in for him - doubtful), but overall he didn’t get what he needed, nor is he likely to after February and March are through. Worse, the Democrats may have lost it now. They will go on to convention in a deadlocked fight and probably broke. (Obama has been spending money much faster than Clinton. Clinton’s fundraising has slowed down.)
Had Obama taken California, it might have been time for Clinton to bow out. Now, the possibility of the Democrats losing in November is real. Politics is a game of chess and last night, the Democrats got checked. November could be mate, and Karl Rove is rolling with laughter.
Just take a look at the electoral map for 2004 and, before you wax poetic about change and how it’s 2008 and the past doesn’t matter, and the young people will change the world, and how Obama can bring people together, and blah, blah, blah… consider:
- Obama’s top five states by percentage won: Idaho, Kansas, Alaska, Colorado, and Minnesota, were caucus states, not primaries. Except for Iowa, most caucus turn out is low, and at caucuses, people have to potentially defend their choice in public, in front of a group of caucus goers, something Clinton voters have been hesitant to do as Obama’s fortunes have risen. By contrast, an actual primary state in the same region (Oklahoma) went for Clinton.
- Now dig deeper. Obama’a number six and seven states are Georgia (overwhelming African American Democratic vote) and Illinois, his home state.
- We’re not done yet. Win number eight (by percentage won) is North Dakota. Again, a caucus state.
- Wins number 9 and 10, Utah and Alabama. In 2004, utah went for bush 71% in 2004 versus Kerry’s 26%. Utah counts for nothing in this case. Alabama? Again, a large African American Democratic vote, and a state which also went for Bush in 2004 by 62%.
- It’s not until we look at wins 11, 12 and 13 (his final and slimmest wins), that we see a real win for Obama: Delaware by 11%, Connecticut by 4% and Missouri by less than a point.
- New Mexico is still up in the air, but as of Wednesday, Clinton leads by about 100 votes (CNN). This one may go to Obama in the end. But that’s not a win. That’s a shave, whether we’re talking legs or beard.
- Every other state after that, New Jersey, Arizona, Massachusetts, Tennessee, California, New York, Oklahoma, Arkansas, all went to Clinton by increasing margins as you go down the list. All were primary states, not caucuses.
- Based on the 2004 map, there are really only three pick up states for the Democrats: Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada.
Source: www.electoral-vote.com
What this means, this data set, is that Obama is not winning where it actually counts. Yes he won the Iowa caucus. But Nevada and New Mexico are a different story. Nevada’s vote went to Clinton, even though Obama got the most delegates, because while technically a caucus, it turned into a primary. People simply dropped in, voted and left. No discussion, no arm twisting. New Mexico is still up in the air - but it will be slim for either candidate. If I were to bet who could carry those three states against McCain, it would be Clinton.
In red states, it seems some people have been on the losing side for so long (Democrats), are so scared of losing again that they’re ready to scream from the top of thier lungs that Clinton can’t win and so we should get behind a fresh face in the hopes of being less divisive. Need I remind you, it was not Clinton who made the 90’s politics what they were. Even more people have bought into the idea that Clinton can’t win across party lines. Yet, she has done so twice, and in a not so very blue state.
The answer now, after Super Tuesday, is for Obama to be the bigger man (pardon the pun), and shut this race down. By ceding the nomination, he would wield enormous power over Clinton for the next four years and ensure both of their political futures, a better future for every citizen, and his own eventual presidency. The alternative is a brokered convention, bitterness and financial problems in the general election, capped by a loss to John McCain.
We can pretty much assume that the Republican ticket will be McCain/Huckabee. We’ve already seen evidence of this in the West Virginia Cuacus where McCain supporters fell in behind Huckabee to prevent a Romney win.
The Republicans will reel in Romney, clean things up and get ready for November. They have no choice now but to take Huckabee as the VP - he brings the God vote. Romney is a looser all around, but lives to fight another year. Despite the frothing of right wing talking heads and self appointed ambassadors of God, their base will vote McCain, especially with Huckabee as VP.
The Democratic ticket will either be Clinton/Obama or Obama/_________
And therein lies the problem, and I cannot overstate what it means. So just stop and dwell on that blank spot for a moment.
The problem is that Clinton will NOT take VP now, not after being stabbed in the back by Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Claire McCaskill and others - people she and her husband have helped over the years. Had she lost several primaries in January, she would have scaled back, or resigned herself to taking VP. Not now. Not after all this. So if the DLC and delegates knock her off at the convention, and make Obama the nominee, they have to come up with a new VP.
Sure, people like to say the VP makes no difference, but it actually does. In 1960, Johnson helped balance Kennedy. In 1980, Bush Sr. took one for the team to get the party back in power. In 2000, Cheney helped people feel comfortable with a brain dead, “screw the constitution” Bush. Do you really think that Bill and Hillary will enthusiastically support and raise money for Obama as the nominee after this? No way. Their support will be tacit at best, word only, no deeds. Say what you want to about Bill, but the democratic nominee will need both Clintons.
The Democrats don’t have a VP pick that can stand up to this challenge or balance the ticket. Obama would have to carry the full load with some no name has been or wanna be. The only viable VP would be Oprah and that’s just not happening. Obama is great, he is positive and his presence is invigorating. But, he is not Jesus.
So, who could the Democrats pair with Obama?
- Edwards? Forget it. No one votes for a two time looser.
- Former Iowa Gov., Tom Vilsack? Square him against Huckabee and that’s like Jesus vs. Saint Peter. Peter’s great, but Jesus is Jesus.
- Kerry? As with Edwards, no one likes a looser.
- Indiana Senator Evan Bayh? Indiana went 60% for Bush in 2004, vs. 39% for Kerry. He brings nothing.
You could say this is Howard Dean’s revenge. In 2004, the press killed Dean, slit his throat over a non scream. Anyone who saw that clip knew he was raped by the media unnecessarily. The Democratic party leadership watched that slaughter like a pacifist vegan sent back to the middle ages and did nothing. Then the establishment (Clinton) promptly got behind Kerry. Well, Dean is now in charge of the Democratic party. This is payback and maybe it’s his to give. But it’s our future he’s tinkering with.
As a result of the recent endorsements by Kerry, Kennedy, et al, Hillary will exert a huge payback as will Bill Clinton. Remember, he’s the party’s only successful ex-president in more than 40 years (soon to be 50 years). If you don’t get his support, hang it up. And, yes, (Hillary) Clinton should exert payback for this! Politics is personal, it’s blood sport. Deal with it. If you can’t trust your family, who can you trust?
The ugly truth here is a reality that no Democrat wants to hear because it demonstrates last night’s “check.” But it’s time for some reality:
- Obama is not winning votes as the media is portraying. Instead, he is winning through coersion at caucuses. It’s smart - but it’s a shortcut, not a victory.
- The idea that people will not unite behind Clinton in a general election after 8 years of distruction and a (now) poor economy is flawed.
- And yes, both Obama and Clinton each deserve to be the nominee given their accomplishments, vision, record and political capital. But only one can have it.
Now what does all of that get you?
Bottom line, the DLC abdicated responsibility. They should have pulled one horse back (either Clinton or Obama) early on in this process in order to have something in the stable and avoid this ugly fight. Instead, they let both of their best horses run. Now, they’re screwed. Clinton will never take VP. Obama can NOT carry the whole ticket. And by all accounts, they are going to duke it out to the death.
The one way to ensure a blue victory in November is for Obama to make the right move, right now. That doesn’t make him a loser, it makes him smart.
The country as a whole (unfortunately) does not give two cent’s about Iraq (Obama’s winning vote getter). And in 2012, it’s Jeb Bush for the Republicans. On a personal note, all of you self righteous D’s who had a problem with a dynasty (including me to some extent) just remember this: the Republicans are already covered in their own orgasms at the mere mention of the next heir to their dynasty. Meanwhile, for the Democrats, the ghost of Ralph Nader lives on.
We just got checked.
Linked from: http://www.uclick.com/client/nyt/jd/
Linked from: http://www.uclick.com/client/nyt/bs/

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